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PJM410

Module 4: Critical Thinking

  • Points 70
  • Submitting a file upload

Critical Thinking Assignment (70 Points)

Important! Read First

Choose one of the following two assignments to complete this week. Do not do both assignments. Identify your assignment choice in the title of your submission.

Option #1: Application Development: Build In-House or Outsource Decision Tree

Build a decision tree to decide if your project team should develop an application that will allow users to readily access their accounting spreadsheets, or if this effort should be outsourced to a contractor. The requirements were not completed accurately during the requirements gathering for this project; therefore, there is a risk that the final product will not pass customer acceptance testing. Although doing the project in-house will be expensive, the chances of user acceptance are high, thus preventing costly rework.

1. Use the information in the table below to decide whether you should build the application in-house or outsource it. Pick the decision with the lower investment required.
2. Create a decision tree to show outcomes for each decision node using the SilverDecisions website (http://silverdecisions.pl/SilverDecisions.html?lang=en (Links to an external site.)). Note: While the SilverDecisions tool is intuitive, you can find a manual at http://silverdecisions.pl/ (Links to an external site.).
3. Calculate the expected value of each outcome and show your calculations (Probability x Impact).
4. Export your decision tree as a .png file and save it on your computer.
5. Explain the best option based on the outcome and why.

Cost to build application in-house $95,000
Cost to outsource the task of developing the application $80,000
Probability of passing user acceptance testing if built in-house 90%
Probability of passing user acceptance testing if work is outsourced 30%
Cost of rework after user acceptance testing if built in-house $50,000
Cost of rework after user acceptance testing if work is outsourced $25,000

Be sure to properly organize your writing and include a cover page, an introduction, headings/subheadings for the body of your work, analysis, and recommendations, a conclusion, an appendix, and a list of references. Consult this assignment template for a more complete list of requirements: http://csuglobal.libguides.com/ld.php?content_id=21534702 (Links to an external site.).

Your response should be 1-2 pages in length, including your decision tree, and conform to the CSU-Global Guide to Writing & APA (Links to an external site.). Copy and paste your exported SilverDecisions.png file into a Microsoft Word document for submission.

Refer to the Critical Thinking Assignment grading rubric below for more information on assignment expectations and grading. For assistance with creating a decision tree, review Section 11.4.2.5 in the PMBOK Guide (6th ed.), paying particular attention to Figure 11-15.

Option #2: New Versus Used Car Decision Tree

Build a decision tree to help you decide if you want to purchase a new car or a used car. The biggest concern or risk with purchasing a used car is the potential need for repairs and not knowing about any previous problems the car might have had. There is a 40% chance that a used car will need to be repaired within a one-year period; however, there is a 90% chance that the new car will not need any repairs during the same period. The cost for a used car is $7,500, and the cost for a new car is $15,000.

1. Use the information in the table below to decide whether you should buy a used car versus a new car. Pick the decision with the lower investment required.
2. Create a decision tree to show outcomes for each decision node using the SilverDecisions website (http://silverdecisions.pl/SilverDecisions.html?lang=en (Links to an external site.)). Note: While the SilverDecisions tool is intuitive, you can find a manual at http://silverdecisions.pl/ (Links to an external site.).
3. Calculate the expected value of each outcome and show your calculations (Probability x Impact).
4. Export your decision tree as a .png file and save it on your computer.
5. Explain the best option based on the outcome and why.

Cost to buy a new car

$15,000
Cost to buy a used car $7,500
Probability of not having any repairs within one year 90%
Probability of repairing a used car within one year 40%
Cost of repairs for new car $5,000
Cost of repairs for used car $9,000

Be sure to properly organize your writing and include a cover page, an introduction, headings / subheadings for the body of your work, analysis and recommendations, a conclusion, an appendix, and a list of references. Consult this assignment template for a more complete list of requirements: http://csuglobal.libguides.com/ld.php?content_id=21534702 (Links to an external site.).

Your response should be 1-2 pages in length, including your decision tree, and conform to the CSU-Global Guide to Writing & APA (Links to an external site.). Copy and paste your exported SilverDecisions .png file into a Microsoft Word document for submission.

Refer to the Critical Thinking Assignment grading rubric below for more information on assignment expectations and grading. For assistance on creating a decision tree, review Section 11.4.2.5 in the PMBOK Guide (6th ed.), paying particular attention to Figure 11-15.

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